World ending stocks are projected to decline during 2007/08 by 1.3 million ton to 11.4 million tons as a result of the gap between world production and consumption. World cotton area is projected remain stable in 2008/09 at 33.9 million hectares, less than 1% higher than in 2007/08. Cotton area is projected to decline mostly in the USA (-11%), slight increases are expected in China (Mainland), India, African Franc Zone and Brazil, while stable area is projected for Pakistan, Turkey and Uzbekistan.
World cotton yields are expected to continue rising in 2008/09 and are projected at 794 (+3%) kilograms per hectare. As a result, world cotton production in 2008/09 is expected to increase by 1 million tons to 26.9 million tons. However, world mill use is projected to increase further to 27.4 million tons (+1%), still exceeding production. As a result, a further reduction in world ending stocks could take place to an estimated 10.9 million tons (-5%).
The Secretariat of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), using the ICAC Price Model 2007, forecasts a season-average Cotlook A Index of 67 cents per pound in 2007/08, 8 cents higher than in 2006/07. An expected significant decline in the stocks-to-mill use ratio in the World-less-China (Mainland) is pushing prices higher in 2007/08.
The Cotlook A Index is intended to be representative of the level of offering prices on the international raw cotton market. It is an average of the cheapest five quotations from a selection of the principal upland cottons traded internationally.
The ICAC is an association of 44 governments of cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the Committee publishes information related to world cotton production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical information on cotton production technology.
- ICAC press release of 2008-02-01 (PDF-document) including table “World cotton supply and distribution”
- The Cotlook Indices – An Explaination