20 Februar 2007

Soya Oil Production Not Coming Up to Expectations

The following are the headlines of the respective OIL WORLD WEEKLY.

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  • Soybean fundamentals are torn between ample world supplies in the current season and looming tightness with the need to reduce stocks in 2007/08. World soybean stocks are likely to increase by around 2 Mn T in 2006/07, despite some recent crop losses due to detrimental weather in South America….

  • World rapeseed & canola production will probably increase unusually sharply by 6-7 Mn T in 2007/08. If world production approaches 53-54 Mn T, we expect the price premium of rapeseed relative to soybeans to narrow further in the medium to longer term….
  • We forecast world production of 8 major oils at 121.65 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2006/07, 0.1 Mn T below our Jan 26 estimate, mainly owing to a downward revision in soya oil. Soya meal demand partly turns out below expectations, thus limiting soybean crushings….
  • The sharp recent price rise in feedstuffs has pronouncedly reduced feeding profitability. We have thus reduced our estimates of world oilmeal production and usage for the current season by 0.5 Mn T and 0.3 Mn T, respectively….

(Cf. news of 2007-02-07.)

Source: Oil World, 2007-02-16.

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