Rapeseed: Strong demand from China

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• World supplies of soybeans will turn out smaller than expected in Febr/Aug 2008, lifting soybean futures on the CBoT to new all-time highs. G-4 soybean stocks as of end-Jan 2008 will plunge to only 52.8 Mn T, down steeply by 13.3 Mn T from five months earlier…
• Sun oil rallied to US-$ 1620 in Rotterdam. Hopes for price pressure on sun oil have diminished due to drought stress on Argentine crop. We have lowered our Argentine sunseed crop forecast to 4.2-4.3 Mn T, assuming an average yield of around 1.62 T/ha, still notably above only 1.41 T/ha last year…
• World sun oil exports are seen declining by 0.8 Mn T from a year ago in Jan/Sept 2008. The sun oil supply outlook for Jan/Sept 2008 has worsened due to the heavily frontloaded Ukrainian export programme. Importers will probably face continuing price firmness in the near to medium term…
• Rapeseed exports from Canada, Ukraine, the EU-27 and Australia increased by 14% from a year earlier in July/Nov 2007 due to stronger demand from China, Pakistan, UAE, Turkey and Mexico. In Dec/June 2007/08 we expect Canada’s market share to expand sizably…
• Rapeseed crushings were higher than expected in France, Germany and the Benelux countries in November, bringing the combined processing of the EU-27 to 1.65 Mn T in Nov, up 18% from a year earlier…
• US soya oil consumption for biodiesel production was boosted by 69% from a year before to 1.25 Mn T in Jan/Nov 2007…
• Veg. oil prices continued to rally in India, raising the possibility that the Indian Government will reduce import taxes on vegetable oils…

(Cf. news of 2008-01-09.)

Source

Oil World, 2008-01-11.

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