Canadian canola production: surprising downward correction

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• Soybeans are competing for acreage with grains. Wheat and corn prices were relatively firmer than soybeans during the past few weeks. Soybean prices will have to strengthen relative to grains to stimulate farmers to plant sufficient acres to soybeans in the spring of 2008…
• There are concerns that La Niña conditions will continue until Feb or March 2008, creating a high potential for below-normal rainfall and inferior growing conditions for soybeans and other crops in central and southern Argentina and southern Brazil…
• Fish oil prices skyrocketed during the past three months and even reached a record level in November. World production and supplies cannot keep pace with increasing fish oil requirements. Therefore far above average prices are likely to be seen also in 2008…
• A surprising downward correction of the Canadian canola production by 114 Thd T to 8.75 Mn T this year as well as partly considerable reductions of Canadian grain output estimates are further tightening the world supplies of grains and oilseeds…
• Soya meal imports of the EU-27 are likely to increase sharply to a record 6.6 Mn T in Oct/Dec 2007, up by 11% from a year earlier. This will boost total EU-27 soya meal imports from third countries to a record 24.3 Mn T in calendar year 2007…
• South African import requirements of oils & fats are expected to turn out slightly lower than last season in Oct/Sept 2007/08, due to the forecast recovery in domestic oilseed production and crushings and hence oil output…

(Cf. news of 2007-11-29.)

Source

Oil World, 2007-12-07.

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