20 August 2009

ICAC: Modest Recovery Expected for Cotton

Still decreasing production but more trade forecast for 2009/10

The World cotton area is expected to continue to decline to 30.4 million hectares in 2009/10, the lowest area since 2002/03.

World cotton production is forecast stable at 23.6 million tons in 2009/10, expected production increases in India, the United States, Pakistan and Australia are expected to be offset by declines in China (Mainland), Brazil, Uzbekistan, Turkey, Greece, Turkmenistan and Mexico.

World cotton mill use is expected to recover slightly to 23.5 million tons in 2009/10. However, this modest upturn is dependent upon an improvement in world economic growth.

World cotton trade is forecast 7% higher at 6.8 million tons, driven by an increase in imports by major consuming countries, including China (Mainland). Indian exports are expected to rebound strongly in 2009/10, to 1.4 million tons.

The season-average Cotlook A Index is expected to be unchanged. Based on an expected stable stocks-to-mill use ratio in the World-less-China (Mainland) in 2009/10, the ICAC Price Model 2007 forecasts a season-average Cotlook A Index of 60 U.S. cents/lb in 2009/10 (the 95% confidence interval is between 51 and 71 cents/lb). This would represent a 2% decline from the 2008/09 average.

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Source: International Cotton Advisory Commiteee, press release, 2009-08-03.

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