Cotton: Record 2006/07 Production Forecast in South America

South American cotton production is forecast at a record 1.7 million tons in 2006/07, up 28% from last season. Production is expected to increase in Brazil to 1.4 million tons (+33%) and in Argentina to 177,000 tons (+35%) but is forecast stable or down in most other South American countries.

World cotton production is expected to remain stable at 25.4 million tons in 2007/08. World cotton consumption is forecast at 26.6 million tons in 2007/08, based on a continued but slower growth. Chinese mill use is expected to continue to drive world mill use and imports in 2007/08. Global cotton imports are projected to increase by 7% to 9.2 million tons in 2007/08, the second highest up to date after the record of 9.8 million tons in 2005/06.

World cotton ending stocks are forecast down by 3% to 11.6 million tons in 2006/07 and down by 7% to 10.7 million tons in 2007/08. Stocks are expected to decline more significantly in China (Mainland) than in the rest of the world in 2007/08.

* Season-average Cotlook A Index (U.S. cents per pound).
** Not a projection. Average for the first seven months of 2006/07 (August 1, 2006 to February 28, 2007).
*** The projection for 2007/08 is based on current estimates of supply and use.